The Meteraology Bureau in Australia has issued an “El Niño alert” and states that there is about a 70 percent chance of an El Nino vent forming in the coming month. It brings the opposite effect on climate to the previously experienced La Niña. El Nino is associated with minimum rainfall in eastern Australia during Winter and Spring, unlike the recently created flood condition by La Niña in past years.
It is evident from historical data that there nine out of ten Winter-Spring periods in eastern Australia occurred in El Niño years. However, it is worth noting that every event is unique, and the occurrence of each El Niño has no guarantee of a specific outcome. Bureau has also upgraded the chance of El Nino from “watch” to “alert” level due to the warmer conditions of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which have now reached El Niño thresholds.
Based on many surveys, the Bureau also forecasts further warming and indicates that sea surface temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds in the southern hemisphere spring. On the other side, some atmospheric indicators have shifted towards El Niño thresholds, and the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have not fully reinforced each other as observed during typical El Niño events.
The duration of the event is, on average, nine months to a year, and tha point to consider is that the current results provided by the Bureau are more conservative than those of the U.S. Bureau of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which indicates a 90% chance of El Niño.
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Aussies Prepare as El Niño Approaches: hot and dry winter ahead.
